San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Reds- Hector RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. homered to right (361 feet).3–4
- 8Brito hit sacrifice fly to left, Stewart scored.2–4
- 8Trevino singled to center, De La Cruz scored, McLain to second, Stewart to third.2–3
- 5Rodríguez singled to right, Arroyo scored, Rodríguez to second.2–2
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to right (347 feet).2–1
- 1Bleday singled to right, Rodríguez scored.1–1
- 1Machado hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -136 / CIN +113
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- SD: Elo 58.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -123
- CIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.7 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −12 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +57 Elo | SD 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 32–3725th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 146827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–65 | 67–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 51–41 |
| Overs–unders | 60–74–4 | 73–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–10 CIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.