San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting4-5
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Hector RodriguezBatting1-5
- Brady SingerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7France singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.5–0
- 4Harris singled to right, Bogaerts scored.4–0
- 4Bogaerts doubled to left, Merrill scored and France scored.3–0
- 4Merrill singled to right, Machado scored, France to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML SD -147 / CIN +137
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SD: Elo 56.4%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -141
- CIN +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.9 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −10 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +45 Elo | SD 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3030–36 | Road vs home | 32–3624th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 147027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–65 | 67–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–40 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 51–40 |
| Overs–unders | 60–73–4 | 73–62–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–10 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.