San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mullins homered to right (360 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.4–9
- 6Caminero singled to right, Walls scored, Aranda to third.4–8
- 6Merrill homered to right center (425 feet), France scored.4–7
- 5DeLuca singled to center, Simpson scored.2–7
- 5Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bogaerts scored, Fermin out at second.2–6
- 5Fermin grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Merrill scored, Hays out at second, Bogaerts to third.1–6
- 4Díaz singled to center, Walls scored.0–6
- 4Walls singled to left, Mullins scored.0–5
- 4Mateo hit sacrifice fly to right, DeLuca scored, Mullins to third.0–4
- 4Simpson scored on Mize wild pitch, Mullins to second on wild pitch by Mize, DeLuca to third on wild pitch by Mize.0–3
- 4Simpson scored on Mize wild pitch, Mullins to second on wild pitch by Mize, DeLuca to third on wild pitch by Mize.0–3
- 4Mullins grounded into fielder's choice to first, Caminero scored, DeLuca to second, Simpson to third.0–2
- 3Díaz homered to right (371 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML SD +114 / TB -123
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TB: Elo 51.3%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -118
- SD +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +9 Elo | TB 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 43–233rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–64 | 75–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–40 | 46–37 |
| Underdog | 46–24 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 57–73–4 | 59–69–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–5 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.