Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Liam HicksBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Beavers doubled to center, Taveras scored.2–3
- 8Basallo homered to center (411 feet), Holliday scored.2–2
- 6Caminero singled to center, Díaz scored, Simpson to second.2–0
- 2Hicks homered to right (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -124 / BAL +116
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TB: Elo 50.8%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -120
- BAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–29 | Road vs home | 33–3318th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–56 | 66–63 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 45–35 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 36–28 |
| Overs–unders | 59–64–5 | 64–60–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 19–31 BAL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 50.