Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeLuca singled to left, Aranda scored and Díaz scored, Caminero to second.6–7
- 7Aranda singled to left, Walls scored, Díaz to second.6–5
- 5Encarnacion-Strand homered to left (359 feet), Henderson scored.6–4
- 5Alonso homered to right (357 feet).4–4
- 4Mateo homered to left center (406 feet), Palacios scored.3–4
- 4Vilade homered to center (428 feet).3–2
- 4Encarnacion-Strand singled to center, Holliday scored and Mayo scored.3–1
- 3Díaz homered to right center (396 feet).1–1
- 2Mayo homered to left center (468 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML BAL +150 / TB -161
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- TB: Elo 56.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- BAL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +6 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +42 Elo | TB 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3029–33 | Road vs home | 41–211st of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–60 | 72–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 45–31 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 62–57–5 | 55–63–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 30–18 TB in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 48.