Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Ryan ViladeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mateo singled to right, Vilade scored, Simpson to third.10–2
- 6Encarnacion-Strand doubled to left, Henderson scored, Holliday scored and Alonso scored.10–1
- 6Holliday doubled to center, Pozo scored and Mayo scored. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was upheld.7–1
- 6Cowser homered to right center (392 feet), Taveras scored.5–1
- 5Alonso doubled to left, Holliday scored and Mayo scored.3–1
- 5Holliday singled to center, Taveras scored, Mayo to second.1–1
- 4Vilade homered to center (441 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML BAL +126 / TB -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TB: Elo 56.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.2 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −17 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 18th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 41–201st of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–60 | 72–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 45–30 |
| Underdog | 34–27 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 61–57–5 | 54–63–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 29–18 TB in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 47.