Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caminero grounded out to third, Mateo scored.6–5
- 9Aranda singled to right, Palacios scored and Walls scored.6–4
- 8Henderson homered to right center (400 feet), O'Neill scored.6–2
- 7Beavers singled to right, Henderson scored and Taveras scored, Jackson thrown out at third.4–2
- 3Mesa Jr. singled to center, Caminero scored.2–2
- 3Cowser homered to center (420 feet).2–1
- 2Palacios doubled to right, Hicks scored, Mullins to third.1–1
- 2Encarnacion-Strand hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Neill scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML BAL +138 / TB -148
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TB: Elo 56.1%, market 58.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -142
- BAL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.6 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −16 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Steven Matz: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +43 Elo | TB 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 41–181st of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–60 | 72–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 45–28 |
| Underdog | 32–27 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 60–56–5 | 53–62–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 27–18 TB in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 45.