New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grisham singled to center, Jones scored and Lombard Jr. scored, Caballero to third.3–1
- 3Mayo homered to left (407 feet).1–1
- 3Grisham homered to right (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -106 / BAL -101
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.9%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -102
- BAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −3 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +27 Elo | NYY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3038–28 | Road vs home | 32–3015th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–60 | 65–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 44–51 | 29–33 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders | 51–68–5 | 63–57–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 25–21 BAL in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 46.