New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kirk homered to right center (374 feet).1–3
- 6Kirk doubled to left, Springer scored.1–2
- 6Springer grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lukes out at third, Guerrero Jr. scored on throwing error by first baseman García Jr., Springer to second.1–1
- 6Grisham homered to right (359 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -147 / TOR +137
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.4%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -141
- TOR +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +31 Elo | NYY 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3037–26 | Road vs home | 31–3219th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 150113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–58 | 62–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 44–49 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 37–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–66–5 | 61–58–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 24–26 TOR in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 50.