New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- George Lombard Jr.Batting1-2, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Charles McAdooBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lukes grounded out to pitcher, Valenzuela scored, McAdoo to second, Clement to third.1–4
- 8McAdoo singled to right, Giménez scored, Clement to second, Valenzuela to third.1–3
- 7McAdoo doubled to center, Clement scored.1–2
- 3Kirk singled to center, Bateman scored, Lukes to third.1–1
- 2Lombard Jr. singled to left, Jones scored, Lombard Jr. to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML NYY -187 / TOR +173
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.9%, market 64.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -178
- TOR +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +6 Elo | NYY 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3037–27 | Road vs home | 32–3219th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 150313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–59 | 63–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 44–50 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–67–5 | 61–59–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 24–27 TOR in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 51.