New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Giménez reached on infield single to shortstop, Okamoto scored.4–3
- 10Rice homered to right center (438 feet), Sánchez scored.4–2
- 9Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.2–2
- 7Caballero singled to left, Lombard Jr. scored, Caballero thrown out at second, Chisholm Jr. to third. Toronto Blue Jays challenged: call on the field was overturned.2–1
- 5Cameron doubled to left, Okamoto scored.1–1
- 3García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Caballero scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML NYY +110 / TOR -118
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +20 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +1 Elo | NYY 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–28 | Road vs home | 33–3219th of 30 |
| 10th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 150512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–60 | 64–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 44–51 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 39–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–68–5 | 61–60–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 24–28 TOR in their last 52 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 52.