Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6McAdoo doubled to left, Smith scored.6–7
- 5Okamoto singled to left, Straw scored, Kirk to second.5–7
- 5Kirk singled to center, McAdoo scored, Straw to third.4–7
- 5Lukes hit sacrifice fly to left, Valenzuela scored.3–7
- 5McAdoo singled to right, Smith scored, Valenzuela to second.2–7
- 4Caminero grounded out to shortstop, Walls scored.1–7
- 4Simpson reached on bunt single to pitcher, Palacios scored, Walls to second. Tampa Bay Rays challenged: call on the field was overturned.1–6
- 4Walls hit sacrifice bunt, Mullins scored, Palacios to third.1–5
- 4Palacios doubled to left, Díaz scored and Hicks scored, Mullins to third.1–4
- 4Kirk homered to left (383 feet).1–2
- 1Díaz homered to left center (414 feet), Caminero scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 65%
- ML TOR +179 / TB -193
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- TB: Elo 57.8%, market 64.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -184
- TOR +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +6 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +55 Elo | TB 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 42–221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15238th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–62 | 72–53 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 45–33 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 63–60–4 | 57–63–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 19–31 TB in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 50.