Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Palacios hit sacrifice fly to left, Hicks scored.10–5
- 8Mullins hit sacrifice fly to left, Díaz scored, Hicks to third.10–4
- 7Smith homered to right (357 feet), Clement scored.10–3
- 5Bateman singled to left, Clement scored.8–3
- 5Okamoto homered to left center (442 feet).7–3
- 4Walls singled to center, Mullins scored and Palacios scored.6–3
- 4Vilade scored on Soriano wild pitch, Palacios to second, Mullins to third.6–1
- 4Vilade scored on Soriano wild pitch, Palacios to second on wild pitch by Soriano, Mullins to third on wild pitch by Soriano.6–1
- 4Bateman scored on Martinez wild pitch, Kirk to second.6–0
- 4Bateman scored on Martinez wild pitch, Kirk to second on wild pitch by Martinez.6–0
- 4Kirk reached on infield single to second, Clement scored, Bateman to third.5–0
- 3Kirk homered to left center (414 feet), Lukes scored.4–0
- 1Sánchez doubled to left, Springer scored.2–0
- 1Springer singled to center, Kirk scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML TOR +120 / TB -129
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- TB: Elo 59.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +18 | TOR: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +67 Elo | TB 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 17th of 3028–32 | Road vs home | 42–211st of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–62 | 72–52 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 45–32 |
| Underdog | 39–22 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 62–60–4 | 56–63–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 18–31 TB in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 49.