New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. scored on Cano wild pitch, Lombard Jr. to second on wild pitch by Cano, Caballero to third on wild pitch by Cano.5–3
- 8Chisholm Jr. scored on Cano wild pitch, Lombard Jr. to second on wild pitch by Cano, Caballero to third on wild pitch by Cano.5–3
- 8Lombard Jr. reached on infield single to third, Ramos scored, Caballero to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.4–3
- 6Beavers homered to left center (389 feet).3–3
- 3Alonso homered to right center (423 feet).3–2
- 3Rice homered to right center (447 feet).3–1
- 2Lombard Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Jones scored.2–1
- 2McMahon singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, McMahon out stretching at second, Jones to third.1–1
- 1Holliday stole home, Henderson stole second.0–1
- 1Holliday stole home, Henderson stole second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 50%
- ML NYY -105 / BAL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -101
- BAL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −17 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +31 Elo | NYY 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3039–28 | Road vs home | 32–3117th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–60 | 65–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–51 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders | 51–69–5 | 63–58–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 26–21 BAL in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 47.