New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. tripled to right, García Jr. scored.6–1
- 6Jones homered to left center (398 feet).5–1
- 6García Jr. homered to right center (413 feet).4–1
- 5Beavers homered to right (386 feet).3–1
- 3Ramos doubled to center, Rice scored.3–0
- 3Rice singled to left, Wells scored.2–0
- 3Caballero grounded into fielder's choice to second, Jones scored, Wells safe at second on error by shortstop Henderson.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML NYY -110 / BAL +102
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.5%, market 51.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -106
- BAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +2 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3040–28 | Road vs home | 32–3218th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–60 | 65–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 44–51 | 29–35 |
| Underdog | 22–9 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders | 51–70–5 | 63–59–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 27–21 BAL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 48.