Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 12Gonzales singled to center, Triolo scored.3–2
- 8Cronenworth singled to center, Harris scored.2–2
- 6Fermin scored on a balk.2–1
- 6Fermin scored on a balk.2–1
- 6Flores Jr. doubled to center, Reynolds scored.2–0
- 6Valdez homered to center (414 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML PIT +104 / SD -112
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- SD: Elo 57.3%, market 51.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -108
- PIT +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +51 Elo | SD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 40–265th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 16th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15288th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–73 | 69–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–44 | 23–38 |
| Underdog | 33–29 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 72–56–4 | 57–70–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 7–14 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.