Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting3-3
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 5Tucker singled to right, Betts scored and Muncy scored.3–4
- 4Thomas singled to left, Tucker scored, T. Hernández to second.3–2
- 4T. Hernández singled to left, Muncy scored, Tucker to second.3–1
- 1Flores Jr. grounded out to second, Cruz scored.3–0
- 1Cruz tripled to right, Valdez scored and Reynolds scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML PIT +234 / LAD -254
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.8%, market 70.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -240
- PIT +240 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +83 Elo | LAD 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3029–35 | Road vs home | 38–265th of 30 |
| 5th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15582nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–72 | 57–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–44 | 50–69 |
| Underdog | 32–28 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 72–54–4 | 60–67–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–13 LAD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.