Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Nick YorkeBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Davis singled to center, Yorke scored.8–5
- 6Yorke doubled to left, Gonzales scored, Mangum scored and Flores Jr. scored.8–4
- 6Callahan singled to center, Keith scored and McKinstry scored, Lee to second.8–1
- 6Lee walked, McGonigle scored, McKinstry to second, Keith to third.6–1
- 5Davis grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mangum scored on throwing error by second baseman Lee, Davis to second, Yorke out at second.5–1
- 5Clark singled to left, Lee scored, Clark to second, Callahan to third.5–0
- 2McGonigle homered to right center (405 feet), Torres scored.4–0
- 1Lee singled to right, Keith scored, McKinstry to second.2–0
- 1McKinstry singled to center, Torres scored, Keith to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML DET -105 / PIT -103
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- DET: Elo 47.3%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- PIT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +3 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +19 Elo | PIT 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 32–3116th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 10th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–65 | 56–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 31–28 |
| Overs–unders | 55–63–6 | 70–52–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–8 PIT in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.