Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Betts singled to center, T. Hernández scored.6–4
- 10Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Pages scored, T. Hernández to second.5–4
- 7Moniak homered to right (399 feet), McCarthy scored.4–4
- 4Amador doubled to left, Norby scored and Rumfield scored.4–2
- 4E. Hernández homered to left (375 feet), Tucker scored.4–0
- 4Betts homered to left (375 feet).2–0
- 2E. Hernández singled to center, Betts scored, Tucker to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML LAD -193 / COL +179
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.1%, market 64.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -184
- COL +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.4 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +124 Elo | LAD 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3039–25 | Road vs home | 27–3428th of 30 |
| 28th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 141730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–71 | 66–60 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 49–68 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 61–55 |
| Overs–unders | 59–66–2 | 62–60–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 40–11 COL in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 40 of 51.