Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Zac VeenBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Veen doubled to right, Amador scored, B. Sullivan to third.11–5
- 9Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Rumfield scored.11–4
- 9Amador singled to center, Castro scored, Rumfield to second.11–3
- 8Freeman doubled to left, Ohtani scored.11–2
- 7B. Sullivan hit sacrifice fly to right, Norby scored.10–2
- 6Pages singled to center, Freeman scored.10–1
- 6Ohtani homered to center (452 feet), Edman scored.9–1
- 5Betts grounded out to shortstop, Pages scored, Muncy to second.7–1
- 5Ohtani homered to left center (428 feet).6–1
- 3McCarthy grounded into fielder's choice to second, Amador scored, Tovar out at second, B. Sullivan to third.5–1
- 3Muncy homered to right center (461 feet), Freeman scored and Pages scored.5–0
- 3Pages singled to center, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.2–0
- 2Betts doubled to center, Muncy scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML LAD -283 / COL +260
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.7%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -266
- COL +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.6 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +25 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +90 Elo | LAD 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 70.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3037–25 | Road vs home | 27–3227th of 30 |
| 24th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301554 | Elo rating | 141930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–70 | 65–59 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 48–67 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 60–54 |
| Overs–unders | 57–66–2 | 60–60–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 38–11 COL in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 38 of 49.