Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castro singled to left, McCarthy scored.7–6
- 8Veen singled to right, Castro scored, Rumfield to second.7–5
- 6Freeman singled to left, T. Hernández scored, Ohtani to second.7–4
- 5Castro homered to left center (401 feet).6–4
- 4Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, T. Hernández scored.6–3
- 4T. Hernández doubled to right, Tucker scored.5–3
- 4Tucker doubled to right, Edman scored.4–3
- 3Norby doubled to center, Rumfield scored.3–3
- 3Rumfield doubled to center, Castro scored.3–2
- 3Ohtani homered to right center (448 feet), Feduccia scored.3–1
- 1Carrigg doubled to center, McCarthy scored.1–1
- 1Muncy hit sacrifice fly to third, Freeman scored, Pages to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML LAD -193 / COL +179
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 66.5%, market 64.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -184
- COL +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.4 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +119 Elo | LAD 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3038–25 | Road vs home | 27–3327th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301556 | Elo rating | 141730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–70 | 65–60 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 49–67 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 60–55 |
| Overs–unders | 58–66–2 | 61–60–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 39–11 COL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 39 of 50.