Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Brett CallahanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds singled to left, Triolo scored.1–4
- 5Horwitz singled to right, Flores Jr. scored, Triolo to second.1–3
- 5Cruz homered to center (422 feet), Valdez scored.1–2
- 5Callahan homered to right (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML DET +142 / PIT -153
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.7%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -146
- DET +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3029–33 | Road vs home | 32–3217th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 10th of 301521 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–65 | 56–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 25–43 |
| Underdog | 30–19 | 31–28 |
| Overs–unders | 56–63–6 | 71–52–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–8 PIT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.