Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. homered to left center (390 feet).1–8
- 7Bogaerts doubled to left, Hays scored.1–7
- 7Merrill homered to right (414 feet).1–6
- 6Tatis Jr. singled to center, Bogaerts scored and Bowen scored.1–5
- 6Rengifo doubled to right, Campusano scored and Hays scored, Bogaerts to third.1–3
- 5Lee homered to right center (401 feet).1–1
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to left (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML MIN +142 / SD -153
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SD: Elo 58.7%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +61 Elo | SD 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 39–265th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–63 | 68–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 22–38 |
| Underdog | 51–32 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 67–52–11 | 56–70–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–6 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.