Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Padres- Ty FranceBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5France hit sacrifice fly to right, Rengifo scored, Machado to second.2–6
- 5Machado singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Rengifo to third.2–5
- 5Rengifo singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Tatis Jr. to second.2–4
- 5Tatis Jr. singled to right, Hays scored, Cronenworth to third.2–3
- 4Clemens tripled to right, Buxton scored and Bell scored.2–2
- 1France homered to left center (421 feet), Machado scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML MIN +111 / SD -119
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- SD: Elo 60.8%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +1 | MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +76 Elo | SD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 37–266th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 15238th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–61 | 66–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 20–38 |
| Underdog | 51–30 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 66–52–10 | 55–70–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–4 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.