Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to center, Campusano scored, Fermin to second.5–7
- 7France singled to right, Machado scored.5–6
- 7Machado grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Cronenworth scored on error, Machado second.5–5
- 7Cronenworth doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored and Fermin scored.5–4
- 6Merrill singled to center, Cronenworth scored, Machado to second.5–2
- 4Keaschall singled to center, Lee scored, Keaschall to second.5–1
- 3Clemens singled to center, Jeffers scored.4–1
- 2Merrill homered to center (411 feet).3–1
- 2Culpepper homered to left (400 feet).3–0
- 2Lee homered to left center (366 feet).2–0
- 1Keaschall homered to left (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML MIN +129 / SD -139
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- SD: Elo 61.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -133
- MIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +11 | MIN: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Casey Mize: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +78 Elo | SD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 38–266th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301479 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–62 | 67–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 21–38 |
| Underdog | 51–31 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 66–52–11 | 55–70–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.