Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-4
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Aranda homered to right center (380 feet).4–1
- 4Callahan hit sacrifice fly to center, McGonigle scored.3–1
- 4Simpson reached on bunt single to third, Mateo scored.3–0
- 1Aranda grounded into fielder's choice to first, Vilade scored, DeLuca out at second.2–0
- 1Caminero grounded out to shortstop, Díaz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML TB -135 / DET +126
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- TB: Elo 52.0%, market 56.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- DET +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −19 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +14 Elo | TB 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 32–3118th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–57 | 61–69 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 45–36 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 31–22 |
| Overs–unders | 59–66–5 | 57–67–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–12 DET in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.