Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Isbel doubled to left, Massey scored.2–5
- 7Jensen homered to center (443 feet).2–4
- 7McGonigle singled to right, McKinstry scored.2–3
- 7McKinstry doubled to center, Clark scored.1–3
- 6Pasquantino homered to right (420 feet).0–3
- 5Isbel homered to right center (387 feet).0–2
- 4Massey reached on infield single to shortstop, Pasquantino scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML DET -105 / KC -103
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- DET: Elo 57.9%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- KC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −6 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +55 Elo | DET 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–35 | Road vs home | 33–3015th of 30 |
| 27th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 147126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–66 | 67–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 18–27 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 49–35 |
| Overs–unders | 56–65–6 | 59–65–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 31–18 KC in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 49.