Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brian ServenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heim grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Cortes scored, Walton out at second, White to third.5–9
- 8Caglianone singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.4–9
- 8Witt Jr. doubled to left, Jensen scored.4–8
- 6Caglianone singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.4–7
- 5Serven homered to left (386 feet), Walton scored.4–6
- 5White homered to left center (401 feet).2–6
- 3Isbel singled to center, Massey scored, Collins to third.1–6
- 2Witt Jr. homered to left center (390 feet), Isbel scored.1–5
- 1Perez singled to center, Caglianone scored and Garcia scored.1–3
- 1Garcia singled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Garcia to second, Caglianone to third.1–1
- 1McNeil homered to right (375 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 63%
- ML ATH +168 / KC -181
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- KC: Elo 58.6%, market 63.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -173
- ATH +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.9 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +60 Elo | KC 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 63.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–35 | Road vs home | 29–3021st of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 29th of 301436 | Elo rating | 146527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–66 | 64–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 47–38 | 49–35 |
| Overs–unders | 61–58–5 | 57–64–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 12–9 KC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.