Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-3
- Gage JumpPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Massey doubled to right, Collins scored.2–6
- 5Walton grounded out to second, Muncy scored, Serven to second, Cortes to third.2–5
- 5Serven singled to center, Butler scored, Cortes to second, Muncy to third.1–5
- 4Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored, Rave to second.0–5
- 4Loftin tripled to center, Massey scored.0–4
- 3Collins singled to left, Perez scored and Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to third.0–3
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left center (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML ATH +116 / KC -124
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- KC: Elo 60.8%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- KC -120
- ATH +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.8 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +17 | ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +76 Elo | KC 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–38 | Road vs home | 32–3015th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 30 |
| 29th of 301432 | Elo rating | 147027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–68 | 66–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 17–27 |
| Underdog | 48–40 | 49–35 |
| Overs–unders | 63–59–5 | 59–65–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 12–12 KC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.