Athletics at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy homered to center (414 feet), Walton scored.7–9
- 8Garcia singled to right, Rave scored.5–9
- 8Rave doubled to right, Tolbert scored, Witt Jr. scored and Isbel scored.5–8
- 8Collins hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored, Isbel to second, Tolbert to third.5–5
- 8Isbel singled to left, Pasquantino scored, Tolbert to second, Perez to third.5–4
- 8Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored.5–3
- 6Pasquantino homered to right (427 feet).5–2
- 5Gelof grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bolte scored, McNeil out at second.5–1
- 5McNeil singled to right, Muncy scored, Bolte to third.4–1
- 5Bolte singled to left, Walton scored, Bolte to second, Muncy to third.3–1
- 4Perez doubled to center, Pasquantino scored.2–1
- 1Gelof singled to left, McNeil scored.2–0
- 1McNeil doubled to center, Bolte scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 63%
- ML ATH +169 / KC -182
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- KC: Elo 60.0%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- KC -174
- ATH +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −30 | −12 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +71 Elo | KC 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–37 | Road vs home | 31–3016th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301434 | Elo rating | 146827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–67 | 65–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 48–39 | 49–35 |
| Overs–unders | 62–59–5 | 58–65–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 12–11 KC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.