Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew SearsPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Loftin singled to left, Isbel scored, Loftin to second.7–11
- 8Isbel singled to center, Rave scored.7–10
- 7Malgeri walked, Lee scored, Valencia to second, McGonigle to third.7–9
- 6Clark grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Torkelson scored, Malgeri to second, Callahan out at third.6–9
- 5Rave homered to right (407 feet), Perez scored.5–9
- 5Perez doubled to left, Pasquantino scored.5–7
- 5Pasquantino doubled to center, Loftin scored.5–6
- 5McGonigle homered to right center (392 feet), Lee scored.5–5
- 5Lee singled to center, Báez scored.3–5
- 5Torres grounded out to shortstop, Clark scored, Báez to third.2–5
- 2Loftin homered to left center (379 feet), Tolbert scored and Isbel scored.1–5
- 2Isbel singled to left, Perez scored and Rave scored, Tolbert to second.1–2
- 1McGonigle doubled to center, Torres scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML DET -108 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- DET: Elo 53.1%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | DET: Jacob Waguespack: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +21 Elo | DET 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 35–3014th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 10th of 301514 | Elo rating | 147624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–68 | 69–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 20–27 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 49–35 |
| Overs–unders | 56–67–6 | 59–67–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 31–20 KC in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 51.