Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caglianone scored on Rainey wild pitch.1–3
- 6Caglianone scored on Rainey wild pitch.1–3
- 5Lee homered to left center (446 feet).1–2
- 4Perez homered to center (424 feet).0–2
- 3Isbel homered to right (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML DET -104 / KC -103
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 50.3%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- KC +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +9 | DET: Drew Anderson: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +2 Elo | DET 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 34–3015th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Elo rating | 147424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–67 | 68–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 49–35 |
| Overs–unders | 56–66–6 | 59–66–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 31–19 KC in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 50.