Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Chandler SimpsonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cowser homered to right (382 feet).3–1
- 6Simpson singled to center, Caminero scored, Hicks to second.3–0
- 6Caminero singled to center, Aranda scored, Caminero to second.2–0
- 6Díaz scored on Baz wild pitch, Aranda to second on wild pitch by Baz.1–0
- 6Díaz scored on Baz wild pitch, Aranda to second on wild pitch by Baz.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML TB +101 / BAL -108
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 47.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +17 Elo | TB 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 34–3319th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–57 | 67–63 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 45–36 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders | 59–65–5 | 64–61–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 19–32 BAL in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 51.