Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Brett CallahanBatting1-4
- Troy MeltonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Aranda scored.3–0
- 2Mullins singled to right, DeLuca scored, Mullins out stretching at second.2–0
- 2DeLuca doubled to left, Simpson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML TB +114 / DET -123
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- DET: Elo 57.3%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -118
- TB +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +18 | TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3035–31 | Road vs home | 33–3218th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–58 | 62–70 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 46–37 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders | 59–68–5 | 57–69–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–13 DET in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.