Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-5
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cronenworth doubled to center, Fermin scored.0–3
- 4Merrill tripled to right, Machado scored.0–2
- 2Rengifo singled to right, Merrill scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML PIT +126 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- SD: Elo 56.8%, market 56.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +47 Elo | SD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 40–287th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–73 | 69–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–44 | 23–40 |
| Underdog | 35–29 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 72–58–4 | 57–72–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–14 SD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.