Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz homered to right (379 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML PIT +115 / SD -123
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- SD: Elo 58.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 3.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −2 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +56 Elo | SD 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3030–37 | Road vs home | 40–276th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–73 | 69–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–44 | 23–39 |
| Underdog | 34–29 | 46–24 |
| Overs–unders | 72–57–4 | 57–71–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–14 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.