San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Simpson singled to left, Mateo scored, Caminero to second.6–7
- 7Díaz singled to center, Palacios scored and Walls scored on error, Díaz to third, Mullins to third, Mullins scored on throwing error by second baseman Rengifo.6–6
- 7Tatis Jr. stole home, Machado stole second.6–3
- 7Tatis Jr. stole home, Machado stole second.6–3
- 7Machado singled to right, Harris scored and Rengifo scored, Tatis Jr. to third.5–3
- 6Caminero homered to center (426 feet).3–3
- 6France homered to right (351 feet), Machado scored.3–2
- 3Aranda homered to center (453 feet).1–2
- 3Cronenworth doubled to center, Harris scored.1–1
- 1Hicks singled to center, Díaz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML SD +119 / TB -128
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TB: Elo 53.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- SD +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 44–233rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–65 | 76–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–40 | 47–37 |
| Underdog | 46–25 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 58–73–4 | 60–69–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–6 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.