San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Mateo singled to left, Piper scored, DeLuca to second, Simpson to third.4–5
- 11Palacios scored, DeLuca safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Bogaerts, Simpson to second, Piper to third.4–4
- 11France hit sacrifice fly to right, Machado scored.4–3
- 9DeLuca homered to left (319 feet), Caminero scored.3–3
- 7Song hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.3–1
- 4Caminero homered to left center (440 feet).2–1
- 4Bogaerts singled to center, France scored and Merrill scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML SD +142 / TB -153
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- TB: Elo 52.8%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -146
- SD +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.1 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | SD: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3030–35 | Road vs home | 45–233rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–65 | 76–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–40 | 47–38 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 59–73–4 | 61–69–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–7 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.