Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Vaughn homered to left center (420 feet).1–2
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to center (413 feet), Kelly scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -121 / CHC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.2%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- CHC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −5 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +29 Elo | MIL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3040–28 | Road vs home | 40–319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 1st of 301570 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–65 | 69–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 51–54 | 37–56 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 32–15 |
| Overs–unders | 62–73–5 | 76–57–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 30–23 CHC in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 53.