Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez scored on Anderson wild pitch.3–5
- 8Suárez scored on Anderson wild pitch.3–5
- 7McLain homered to right (352 feet).3–4
- 7Chourio hit sacrifice fly to center, Pratt scored, Sánchez to third.3–3
- 6Stephenson homered to left (392 feet).2–3
- 4Trevino singled to right, Bleday scored, Suárez to second.2–2
- 3Lara grounded out to first, Hamilton scored.2–1
- 1De La Cruz homered to center (438 feet).1–1
- 1Contreras homered to center (401 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML MIL -156 / CIN +129
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.9 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −15 | MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +88 Elo | MIL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3041–29 | Road vs home | 34–3824th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15017th of 30 |
| 1st of 301570 | Elo rating | 147027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–66 | 69–72 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 52–55 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 53–42 |
| Overs–unders | 63–74–5 | 75–64–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 34–13 CIN in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.