Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (400 feet).3–4
- 8Yelich hit sacrifice fly to right, Chourio scored, Turang to third.2–4
- 8Chourio singled to right, Mitchell scored and Ortiz scored.2–3
- 7Bregman singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Suzuki to second.2–1
- 5Mitchell singled to center, Lara scored.1–1
- 5Ramirez homered to left (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML CHC +105 / MIL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.8%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +41 Elo | MIL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 47–242nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 5th of 301544 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–73 | 76–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–58 | 52–57 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 78–59–7 | 64–75–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 24–30 MIL in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 54.