Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sanoja homered to left (388 feet), Lopez scored.3–10
- 5Mack singled to right, Caissie scored, Hernández to second.3–8
- 5Hernández singled to center, Conine scored, Caissie to second.3–7
- 5Caissie singled to right, Sanoja scored and Stowers scored, Conine to third.3–6
- 5Conine hit by pitch, Pauley scored, Stowers to second, Sanoja to third.3–4
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to right (403 feet).3–3
- 4Hernández homered to left (372 feet).2–3
- 4Hoerner grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Bregman scored, Conforto out at second.2–2
- 3Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to left, Kelly scored.1–2
- 2Lopez singled to left, Hernández scored.0–2
- 2Mack grounded out to second, Marsee scored, Hernández to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML CHC -142 / MIA +118
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.1%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -128
- MIA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −9 | CHC: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +57 Elo | CHC 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–31 | Road vs home | 42–296th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301548 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–72 | 70–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–57 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 41–39 |
| Overs–unders | 77–59–7 | 70–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–9 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.