Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Graham PauleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Nick LoftinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy DobnakPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Loftin homered to left (413 feet).6–3
- 8Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Collins scored, Jensen to third.6–2
- 8Jensen doubled to left, Rojas scored, Collins to third.6–1
- 7Sanoja singled to left, Pauley scored.6–0
- 7Pauley tripled to right, Lopez scored and Mack scored.5–0
- 5Stowers homered to right (412 feet).3–0
- 2Pauley homered to right (391 feet), Caissie scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML MIA -114 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 44.4%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.0 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +19 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Randy Dobnak: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +39 Elo | KC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–42 | Road vs home | 36–3012th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–71 | 74–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 20–27 |
| Underdog | 38–37 | 54–37 |
| Overs–unders | 67–67–4 | 63–69–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–3 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.