Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Caleb DurbinBatting2-4
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sanoja singled to center, Ruiz scored.0–4
- 8Lopez scored on error, Caissie safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Sogard, Caissie safe at second on error.0–3
- 2Lopez stole second, scored on error by catcher Wong0–2
- 2Lopez scored on error.0–2
- 1Hernández singled to left, Stowers scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -129 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −5 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +57 Elo | BOS 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3039–27 | Road vs home | 41–275th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301551 | Elo rating | 149615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–65 | 65–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–48 | 29–31 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders | 62–66–4 | 64–65–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–4 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.