Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Mickey GasperBatting2-2, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Duran homered to right center (412 feet), Contreras scored, Jones scored and Monasterio scored.7–3
- 10Sanoja struck out, Navarreto scored, Sanoja to first on wild pitch by Olds, Lopez to third.3–3
- 10Wong scored on a passed ball by Navarreto.3–2
- 10Wong scored on a passed ball by Navarreto.3–2
- 6Hernández homered to left (403 feet).2–2
- 6Gasper homered to center (418 feet).2–1
- 5Navarreto hit sacrifice fly to center, Jiménez scored, Ruiz to second, Conine to third.1–1
- 2Gasper homered to center (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BOS -140 / MIA +131
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 3.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −10 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +47 Elo | BOS 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3038–27 | Road vs home | 41–264th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301549 | Elo rating | 149814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–65 | 65–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–48 | 29–31 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders | 61–66–4 | 63–65–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–4 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.