Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Crews doubled to center, Lile scored.2–4
- 4Marsee homered to right (379 feet).1–4
- 4Tena reached on infield single to shortstop, Ortiz scored on throwing error by shortstop Lopez.1–3
- 2Hernández homered to left (393 feet).0–3
- 1Lopez singled to right, Conine scored and Caissie scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 64%
- ML WSH +172 / MIA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.2%, market 63.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -177
- WSH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +7 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +58 Elo | MIA 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 63.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–33 | Road vs home | 39–254th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–55 | 63–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 27–31 |
| Underdog | 56–40 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders | 67–56–7 | 63–63–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 20–26 MIA in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 46.