Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber singled to left, Stott scored, Realmuto to second.4–6
- 8Hernández singled to center, Conine scored.4–5
- 6Crawford singled to left, Stott scored, Marsh to second.3–5
- 6Stott singled to center, Arraez scored and Bohm scored.3–4
- 6Bohm doubled to left, Turner scored, Arraez to third.3–2
- 6Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lopez scored on throwing error by second baseman Arraez, Conine out at second.3–1
- 5Edwards singled to center, Navarreto scored, Edwards out stretching at second, Marsee to third.2–1
- 2Conine homered to center (422 feet).1–1
- 1Bohm singled to left, Harper scored, Arraez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML MIA +195 / PHI -211
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.2%, market 66.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -200
- MIA +200 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +14 | MIA: Cade Gibson: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +58 Elo | PHI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–37 | Road vs home | 33–3013th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–63 | 54–72 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–30 | 39–54 |
| Underdog | 36–33 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 62–61–3 | 56–62–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 22–30 PHI in their last 52 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 52.