Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Brian NavarretoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez singled to center, Edwards scored.5–6
- 8Bohm singled to center, Harper scored.4–6
- 8Navarreto homered to left (368 feet).4–5
- 7Hill walked, Bohm scored, Realmuto to second, Stott to third.3–5
- 7Sanoja doubled to right, Edwards scored and Ramírez scored, Lopez to third.3–4
- 6Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to center, Realmuto scored, Hill to second.1–4
- 6Hill singled to center, Stott scored, Realmuto to third.1–3
- 6Conine singled to left, Lopez scored, Jiménez to second.1–2
- 3Arraez singled to right, Turner scored, Harper to second.0–2
- 3Turner singled to left, Crawford scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML MIA +232 / PHI -252
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.2%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -238
- MIA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +12 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +65 Elo | PHI 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–36 | Road vs home | 32–3013th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–63 | 54–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–30 | 39–53 |
| Underdog | 35–33 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 61–61–3 | 55–62–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 22–29 PHI in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 51.