Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner doubled to center, Schwarber scored. Philadelphia Phillies challenged: call on the field was overturned.1–4
- 6Sanoja homered to left (377 feet).1–3
- 3Arraez homered to right center (376 feet), Harper scored.0–3
- 2Stubbs reached on infield single to shortstop, Arraez scored, Crawford to second, Marsh to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML MIA +131 / PHI -141
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.7%, market 57.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −11 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +19 Elo | PHI 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–38 | Road vs home | 34–3014th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–64 | 55–72 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–30 | 40–54 |
| Underdog | 36–34 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders | 63–61–3 | 57–62–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 22–31 PHI in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 53.