Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will DionPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sanoja singled to center, Ramírez scored, Marsee to second, Ruiz to third.2–3
- 9Lile singled to left, Young scored, Lile to second.2–2
- 8Lopez singled to right, Sanoja scored.1–2
- 8Sanoja singled to right, Marsee scored.1–1
- 6Ruiz homered to right (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML WSH +132 / MIA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.4%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -136
- WSH +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −10 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +24 Elo | MIA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 38–254th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 24th of 301476 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–55 | 63–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 27–30 |
| Underdog | 55–40 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders | 67–55–7 | 63–62–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 20–25 MIA in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 45.